“Horses for courses” has a measure of truth

The stats show it doesn’t pay to follow the winner of the King George Chase on Boxing Day all the way to Cheltenham.

The expression “horses for courses” is listed in the Cambridge Dictionary as a phrase ‘to say that it is important to choose suitable people for particular activities because everyone has different skills.’

The phrase is just one of many horse racing expressions that have made their way into everyday life. It is based on the idea that some horses are better suited to running at some racetracks, for example, the layout of the course suits their style or the horse might have a positive or negative memory associated with a previous visit.

This is particularly true of racecourses in Europe that can be so different to each other compared to North American standardised ovals.

This idea will inevitably raise its head over Christmas when thoughts turn to whether the winner of the King George at Kempton on Boxing Day, probably the second most prestigious race for staying chasers, can go on to win the Gold Cup at Cheltenham.

There are a number of arguments against such a double. For example Kempton is a right-handed track while Cheltenham left-handed, and Cheltenham places a greater emphasis on stamina than the flatter Kempton which is more of a speed track.

What do the stats say?

• Looking back at results from 1982, only six horse in the last 38 years have won at Kempton and then followed up the next year at Cheltenham – a 16% success rate.
• Looked at a different way, seven King George winners since 1982 are also Gold Cup winners – 18% of all winners.
• Long Run was the last horse to complete the double in 2010.

Overall you can see that there is probably a bit of truth in the “horses for courses” expression, especially where Kempton and Cheltenham are concerned. Of course, it is one thing to identify a trend, but it another to explain it.

I suspect that the left-handed, stamina sapping Cheltenham layout has a lot to do with it, but there are also factors such as the intense competition of winning the biggest race in the calendar, and the sheer randomness within any race that need to be taken into account.

The main take-away from all of this is that whoever wins the King George this Boxing Day, I wouldn’t be running to the bookies to back him for Cheltenham.