The last two years have seen new trends emerging among the winners of cycling’s Grand Tours. Not only is a much younger generation of riders emerging, but a larger pool of talent suggests a more unpredictable and exciting future for fans.
Last year I wrote a blog about how cycling’s Grand Tour winners tend to come in generational waves. When looking at the average age of winners each year you could see the moment when a new generation took over – the average age dropped, only to gradually rise as these riders took control of the races for years to come.
The 2019 data suggested we were at the start of a new wave, with young riders like Egan Bernal (22) and Richard Carapaz (26) winning the Tour de France and Giro D’Italia respectively. Including Primo Roglic, the average age for Grand Tour winners was 26 years old, a dramatic change from the average since 1989 of 29.6.
As the dust settles on another season and we add more data, two differences have emerged from the usual trends.
- The average age of Grand Tour winners has remained at 26 rather than start to rise, and since everyone got a year older in 2020, this is almost like going down again.
- Another new group of young winners emerged in two out of three races this year.
The table below shows the average age of all three Grand Tour winners in each year since 1989. Like an Alpine Stage profile, it shows the peaks and troughs of different generations, but also the dramatic decrease last year, which plateaued in 2020.
Explaining this changing trend is not easy as there are likely to be multiple reasons, but most of the credible explanations will hopefully be great news for cycling fans.
Perhaps the most obvious reason is that there is a larger pool of talented young cyclists coming through. That would explain why the average age remained the same rather than start to rise as a new generation comes to dominate. It is likely that this new generation is still trying to establish its own pecking order.
Secondly, throughout histroy these young talented riders may have always existed, but it is only now that they are being given the chance. So perhaps a new generation of Director Sportifs is willing to place more trust in young riders.
Finally, and perhaps more speculatively, it may be that we are seeing the end of the old unwritten rules of cycling that protect the established riders and expect younger riders to ‘serve their time’ in support of others.
As with so many other walks of life, cycling is seeing the rise of disruptors who will make races more exciting and unpredictable in the future. Something that would be good for the sport overall.
Sport.dat 