The news that a horse has become “the most expensive yearling sold at auction this year” always catches attention, and this month was no exception as Coolmore paid £3.5m at Tattersalls Yearling Sales Book One at Newmarket.
However, looking at the results of the last ten years does not suggest we should be expecting too much, indeed it would make you think that the “most expensive” label is more like asking the jockey to carry an extra stone of weight when the horse runs.
Looking back over the last ten years, the figures show that if you had bought the most expensive yearling each year you would have spent close to £30m. In return would have won just under £450,000 in prize money. Not a great return or a very exciting decade as only three of your ten horses actually won a race, and only one (Glorious Journey) won a Group race – which is what it’s all about at this level.
Figure 1: Owning the most expensive yearlings at auction for the last ten years
The tale below shows the details including how much the yearling cost at auction, how much prizemoney it won, and what type of races.
Table 1: Most expensive yearlings at auction and their future performance
Of course, prize money isn’t everything, and possible stud careers would also have been in the mind of the bidders. But, while these new purchases might have regal blood coursing through their veins, if they haven’t proved it on the racecourse they are unlikely to get much of a chance at stud.
This might explain why half of the most expensive horses each year were fillies. At least with these you have a fall back option as female blood lines are just as important as performance. This might also explain why several of these fillies never saw a racecourse.
Kissing frogs
The data shows that with horses you have to kiss a lot of expensive frogs to find a prince, and being top of the crop in the ring is no guarantee of success on the racecourse. Take Darain as an example, he cost £3.5m and disappointed with only two small race wins amounting to nine thousand pounds. Meanwhile Mogul, who cost £3.4m in the same year, has gone on to win a Gordon Stakes at Goodwood and the Grand Prix de Paris (earning £328,000 along the way).
Success at the top-end of horse racing is only for those who can afford to write-off a few million in the hope that their next big purchase will produce a different outcome. Meanwhile one final thought for punters is that horses with the “most expensive” price tag are worth opposing when they reach the racecourse.
Sport.dat 