At the end of each year I like to look back at what I’ve written over the last twelve months and see what I’ve learnt. So, my own personal review of the year shows that: Football Covid has helped to shift attention from the Premier League’s continued dependence on gambling, where nearly half of all …
Tag Archives: football
New season, same story
When it comes to gambling advertising in the English Premier league there is a lot of noise but not a lot of action. Looking at shirt sponsors for the 2021/22 season shows an increase the number of teams being sponsored by gambling firms (from eight to nine), and gambling sponsorship now accounts for 45% of …
How not to replace Harry Kane
If Harry Kane gets his move away from Tottenham this summer, few Spurs fans will getting excited about Plan B – using the £100+ transfer fee to build a better squad. That’s because most will remember what happened when Gareth Bale left in 2012. Bale went to Real Madrid for £82m and Spurs used the …
When time doesn’t fly – analysing the Copa Libertadores final injury time
Last night’s Copa Libertadores wasn’t much of an advertisement for Brazilian football (something I’m sure supporters of Palmeiras aren’t worrying about this morning), but what was amazing was how an injury time that saw a manger sent off and sensational last gasp winner seemed so tedious. Going back and timing the game shows that although …
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The Premier League half-time review – winners and losers
The Premier League is highly competitive and an analysis of the first half of the season shows that it moving up the league requires significant performance improvement. This weekend marked the halfway stage of the Premier League for most clubs (although Covid postponements have not made it a perfect split). Since most teams have now …
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If your goal goes to VAR, expect the worst
If your team scores a goal in the Premier League but then it goes to VAR, don’t get your hopes up. So far this season 80% of VAR goals decisions have resulted in a goal being disallowed. Ten teams have had goals disallowed, while only four have had them confirmed, and only one team (Aston …
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Modern Premier League sponsorship and the two G’s – Gambling and Globalisation
Comparing Premier League shirt sponsors at the start of this season with those twenty years ago gives an insight into how the league has expanded into new territories, both geographic and industry type. The most commonly discussed change is probably the emergence of gambling sponsors, with five teams now advertising online. However, football sponsorship has …
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What computer generated crowds miss
Last month the Irish Cup Final between Ballymena and Glentoran received an unusual amount of national attention, as it became the first game to be played in the UK with a crowd since the COVID-19 shutdown. While there were only 500 supporters allowed (a big crowd for Irish League football some comedians would suggest) what …
An experiment in forecasting Premier League relegation (Part 2 – bad teams are really bad and embracing the uncertainty)
When the Premier League restarted I decided to develop a model to predict relegation. The model was based on an assessment of the quality of the opposition and their likely motivation. Four rounds of games might be a bit early to re-assess things, but I think I have learnt enough to make some revisions. After …
The changes in Bundesliga form since the re-start
At the time of writing this blog Bundesliga teams had played either five or six games under the new post-lockdown rules. Having a look at performance it is perhaps not surprising how teams towards the top and bottom of the table are faring better than before the lockdown. The graph below shows the difference in …
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