Everybody loves a grand National favourite, especially the bookmakers. Looking back over the race since the turn of the century shows that only four favourites in the last twenty years have won the race. However, before you give up all hope it is interesting to note that a ten pound bet on the favourite each year would still have generated a £120 profit!
The interesting question is whether a similar strategy would apply for the next twenty years as there is a growing trend towards shorter priced favourites (who also tend to do less well in the race).
The graph below shows the starting price of each Grand National favourite since 2000 (the red dots represent favourites who also won). The trend line is definitely moving downwards as the average SP of the favourite in 2015-2019 was 6.4 compared to 8.8 in 2000-2004.
Even in the heyday of winning favourites, when Hedgehunter, Comply or Die and Don’t Push It all won in a six year period (2005-2010) the average SP was still 7.3.
In 2020, Cloth Cap could start as one of the shortest priced favourites in the race’s history, edging the five year favourites average ever closer to 6.
As a result the strategy of backing the favourite and returning a profit over the long term is looking more and more difficult. When prices were closer to 9 you only needed a favourite to come in once every eight years to make a profit. But now it is closer to once every five.
For a lot of people it is just the thrill of winning that matters for their once a year bet, so they will be unlikely to notice or care about the price. But it’s worth keeping an eye on how far this trend of lowering the odds continues in the future.
Sport.dat 