This year’s Premier League could be won with the lowest points haul in ten years. Is this a new trend or Covid related blip – and could we see another Leicester?
Last week my blog was like a half-time report on the English Premier League. Looking at league position and points per game after most teams had played 19 games showed who had improved since last year, who had got worse, and who had generally just stayed the same.
Another interesting point that emerged from the analysis was how many points would it take to win the league this year? If the form in the second half of the seasons matches the first half, then we are looking at around 80 points to win the league.
Looking at the table below, which shows the champion’s points tally each year since 2011, this would be a similar total to 2010/11 or Leicester’s winning season in 2015/16 (81 points).
If the winners do score around 80 points this year it would be in contrast to a recent trend of winner’s scoring closer to 100 points – indeed over the last four seasons the average points total is 97.5.
To match this average a team would need to find some form in the second half of the season (most likely Manchester City at present) and go unbeaten. So it is unlikely.
For supporters, there are two ways of looking at this lower projected winning total.
- One is that it is a return to normal when winners usually scored in the 80’s. In recent years it has looked like Manchester City and Liverpool were going to carve up the league between them leaving everyone else in their wake. Perhaps such dominance is hard to sustain and both teams are reverting to the mean.
- The other is that this dip in points total is the result of the unusual Covid impacted season, and indeed the second half of the last season. Normal service will return in 2021/22 and the bigger teams will power ahead.
If you’re a supporter of Liverpool or Manchester City you’re probably hoping it is the latter, and the last few seasons were not the high-point of a generation. If you support other teams you will of course hope it is the former and the best teams are coming back to the pack.
Alternatively, you could be thinking that a low winning total opens up the league to another miracle story like Leicester. You wont care about Covid regulations, if a crazy season means you win the league.
Sport.dat 