With the re-start of the premier League we can finally get back to action rather than talking. This also means it is time to put all these lockdowns theories to the test.
Previously I had looked at the relegation picture by comparing the fixtures of the bottom six teams. While others such as Opta have looked at historical data to assess the difficulty of the remaining games, I looked at performance this year, and perhaps more importantly, likely motivations of teams.
Originally I made some loose conclusions about what might happen but I have since put together a more mathematical model to forecast final points totals.
This is not an attempt to sell my model but rather the start of a real-time public experiment in forecasting. What I’m most interested is how the assumptions I made when creating the model play out when the action returns.
As the weeks go by I will try and refine the model and create new projections as motivations and performance levels change with results. By the end of the season I can see how this evolved and how right I was, or how wrong. In truth like a lot of things in sport it is the process rather than the outcome that is important here.
I would rather be spectacularly wrong and understand why, than brag about a successful forecast that I may not be really able to explain.
As it stands…
So before the seasons resumes this is how I see the final three, although the difference between Bournemouth and West Ham is so close it is difficult to call.
Bottom of the Premier League at the end of the season (forecast #1 16/06/2020)
| Position | Team | pts |
| 15 | Brighton | 43 |
| 16 | Watford | 41 |
| 17 | Bourneouth | 39 |
| 18 | West Ham | 38 |
| 19 | Aston Villa | 36 |
| 20 | Norwich | 36 |
Sport.dat 