At the time of writing this blog Bundesliga teams had played either five or six games under the new post-lockdown rules. Having a look at performance it is perhaps not surprising how teams towards the top and bottom of the table are faring better than before the lockdown.
The graph below shows the difference in points-per-game for the first 25 matches before lockdown with points-per-game since the return. While the different trajectories of mid table Hertha Berlin and Schalke standout immediately, what is most interesting is how the teams that have improved their points-per-game since the re-start are those at the top and bottom of the league.
This isn’t surprising since these are the teams with the most to play for, whether it be survival or European football. With money being tight next year, staying at the top table, either nationally or internationally, is more important than ever.
What can we expect from the Premier League re-start?
If the Premier League evolves in a similar fashion to the Bundesliga, then three things we can expect are:
- The top teams will hold their form.
- Mid-table teams with little to play for are not going to be trying too hard.
- Those in the relegation battle will be harder to beat than before.
Although clubs at the bottom of the Bundesliga improved by only 0.2 to 0.4 points-per-game this still could be significant, especially as there are four clubs within two points of the last relegation place.
One other note of caution is for Southampton and Newcastle. They fit into the bottom of the ‘mid table’ group but if their points-per-game performance starts to flag dramatically, like Union Berlin or Schalke, they might find themselves drawn into a relegation battle that they no longer have the mindset for.
Currently you can get odds of 50/1 about Southampton being relegated which is the same as Manchester City winning the league. The stats suggest the former is more likely than the latter.
Sport.dat 