With Epsom racecourse getting the go-ahead to run the Derby in July it looks like this year’s winner will be in the record books without an asterisk to denote the race was not held at Epsom. This is important for future breeding potential as the Epsom Derby is regarded as the pinnacle of what a breeder looks for in a horse – balance, speed, stamina and that special determination that separates the great from the greatest.
As the famous Italian breeder Federico Tesio said “the thoroughbred exists because its selection has depended, not on experts, technicians, or zoologists, but on a piece of wood: the winning post of the Epsom Derby.”
However, even though it appears like the classics will be run this year, there is still a fear that a classic winner will be overlooked as any victory happened in such an unusual condensed season.
The condensed summer flat racing season is not just an issue for the breeding industry, horse-racing has a multitude of fans who spend each winter dreaming of being able to see the next champion. Anyone who had the chance to be at a racecourse when Frankel ran would appreciate how much importance fans place on being able to say they remember (or saw) the greats in action.
In this shortened season there will be less chances for fans to get to see the classic three-year old generation (especially when they can’t visit a racecourse) so more familiar juvenile champions from last year will likely play a greater role in the public consciousness.
What are the prospects of last year’s two-year superstar Pinatubo emerging to fill the role of champion?
Described as ‘potentially outstanding’ by the British Horseracing Authority’s lead two-year old handicapper, Pinatubo produced some of the best performances of the last twenty-five years. But how likely is that to convert into classic success?
Since another potential superstar in Arzai was named 1991 Cartier Champion Two-Year Old, just over a quarter of champion juveniles have gone on to Classic success. Eight out of 29 horses went on to win an English classic, rising to 11 when you include French and Irish Classics. So the odds are not in Pinatubo’s favour.
But there is a glimmer of hope for those desperately wanting a good story to emerge in racing this summer. When grouping results in five years intervals it shows that the last 15 years have been more successful for younger horses graduating to classic winners – closer to a 40% chance than 25%.
The performance of Cartier Champion Two-Years in their three-year old season
Note: performance was based on a points system of two points for winning the English 2,000 Guineas or Derby, one point for a French/Irish classic or English St leger, and half a point for being placed in a classic.
These have been the years of Frankel, Dawn Approach, Kingston Hill, Gleneagles, and Churchill, so hopefully Pinatubo will follow that line, rather than the super-speedy US Navy Flag and Too Darn Hot who never quite lived up to the hype.
The reasons for this more recent trend could be better breeding, training methods or understanding of young horse development. Or it may just be random variation rather than a trend at all. But horse racing is built on hope, from multi-millionaires to the small punter or fans, so I suspect most fans will be hoping to see a continuation of a new trend, and a new champion to look back on this season with happy memories.
Sport.dat 