Analysis of the outcome of different ways to end the 2019/20 Premier League season suggests some clubs might have very different objectives for upcoming talks on restarting football.
As the Premier League meets to find a resolution to the season, almost everyone is hoping there can be some way to finish the remaining games of the season. However should the worst happen and the season has to be ended now, who would be the winners and losers?
Here the focus is not on runaway winners Liverpool, but rather those chasing the riches to be won in Europe.
The problem for the Premier League is that four team have played 28 games while the others have all played 29. Using the standings as they are now will disadvantage four teams so the most likely course of action would be a points per game league table.
How things change on a points per game basis is shown in the table below.
The table above shows how Wolves would be the losers in this situation, dropping from sixth to seventh and failing to qualify for the Europa League. The beneficiaries are Sheffield United, who move up to sixth, thanks to having the same amount of points but having played one less game.
Financially, that is a swing of nearly £7m for Sheffield United thanks to extra merit payments from the Premier League and UEFA payments next year (this assumes they reach the group stages of the Europa Cup and win two games and draw one). Meanwhile the reverse is true for Wolves.
The only other teams who would reverse places as a result of a points per game calculation are Tottenham and Arsenal. This would mean an additional £1.8m for Arsenal but really for fans, the chance to finish above their North London rivals is valued much higher.
Are there any teams who would want the season to end now?
So the winners of the points per game calculation are definitely Sheffield United and Arsenal. But are there other teams secretly breathing a sigh of relief if there is no way to solve the ‘games-in-hand’ problem?
Manchester United are possibly in that bracket. Had Sheffield United already played and won their game in hand, it would be the Blades heading into the Champions League next year. Forget the additional £7m, the Champions League would be worth more than £50m to Sheffield United. For Manchester United this reversal would see a drop in revenue from more than £55m to £33m (Manchester United would earn more than Sheffield United in the Champions League because of the system of rewarding larger clubs extra payments). And none of this includes the money from TV, ticket sales and sponsorship incentives associated with playing in the Champions League.
So perhaps Manchester United officials won’t be searching too hard for creative playing solutions to end the season, and will be lobbying for a ‘sensible, safe’ choice of the points per game system. They may take a hit on TV revenue for the rest of Premier League season, but would be looking forward to Champions League football next season.
They might also find a couple of other clubs in agreement with this plan. Most notably Watford, who could be relegated if Aston Villa won their game in hand and jumped out of the relegation zone. West Ham and Bournemouth would also both move down a place and lose nearly £2m each, which would be quite a chunk of money for teams already struggling to pay staff during a lockdown.
However, for the clubs at the bottom of the league it is less about differing prize money caused by how the league is decided, and more about the loss of Premier League riches next year through relegation.
Of course, this is all hypothetical, and who’s to say that Sheffield United or Aston Villa would have won their games in hand. There’s even a scenario where Arsenal end up in Europe! But if the will is there, clubs could start to brainstorm some creative ideas – for starters how about a play-off to solve the Champions League place between Manchester United and Sheffield United, and a relegation mini-league?
What matters to clubs?
What this analysis does suggest is that different clubs might approach the tricky question of how to end the season with very different views on what would be the best outcome – for the game and for them. Ultimately it comes down to the question – does sporting integrity outweigh individual club interest?
Hopefully it won’t come to boardroom negotiations and everything will be settled on the pitch. Better that, than Aston Villa supporters lamenting how they got relegated by 0.04 points.
Note: this blog assumes that Manchester City are still excluded from next year’s Champions League and the team in fifth place in the Premier league will take their place.
Sport.dat 