England beating New Zealand in the Rugby World Cup semi-final was a ‘shock’ that even had non-rugby fans talking on Saturday night. But looking at some tournament performance figures was it really such a shock?
The graph below shows tournament points scored per minute and points conceded per minute for the four semi-finalists (only against Tier 1 opposition). Before going into the individual games, you can see that the England-New Zealand game looked better quality with higher scoring, while Wales were the outlier of the quartet as they scored less and conceded significantly more. Indeed, I was cheering for Wales as this would have created a final of stats versus the fairytale ending that sport can often through up.
Points scored per minute and points per conceded per minute against Tier One nations in RWC 2019
In the first semi-final England had the slightly better figures with a tournament average of scoring 0.49 points per minute (pM) and conceding 0.16 while New Zealand scored 0.43 pM and conceded 0.17. Over 80 minutes this would be a 5-6 point advantage.
Points scored per minute and points per conceded per minute prior to semi-final: England vs New Zealand
Of course, if everything worked out neatly by the numbers rugby would be a dull game, but the numbers do suggest this was not as a big a shock as people think.
As for the second game, you could argue Wales did well to keep it as close as they did as the stats pointed to a much a larger South Africa victory because the Welsh points conceded per minute was more than double that of South Africa. It is this fighting against the odds that probably characterises the Welsh World Cup journey.
Points scored per minute and points per conceded per minute prior to semi-final: South Africa vs Wales
And so to the final. Updating the figures from the semi-final gives England the edge. While the points conceded are the same for both teams, England average 0.41 points pM compared to South Africa’s 0.33 – a difference of six points over 80 minutes which is just below the rugby world cup final average of seven.
Points scored per minute and points per conceded per minute prior to final: England vs South Africa
I’m hoping that at the end of the game we’re talking about the points scored per minute stat rather than the points conceded per minute. The former probably means a great high scoring game while the latter means a dull game of attrition which is ‘one for the purists’.
Of course, if you’re a winning England or South African fan you certainly won’t care how you got there.
Sport.dat 